Last week, at the largest rally of the Chicago mayor’s race so far, Brandon Johnson sought to mimic Martin Luther King Jr., telling thousands that the election was an opportunity to “carry the progressive movement across the world.”
Johnson, the progressive Cook County commissioner, will face moderate former Chicago public school superintendent Paul Vallas in the Second City mayoral runoff on Tuesday, the 55th anniversary of King’s death.
At Thursday’s rally, Johnson invoked King’s remarks during a 17-month campaign in 1965 to reverse discriminatory housing practices in Chicago.
“If we can figure it out in Chicago, we can figure it out anywhere in the world,” Johnson said alongside the late civil rights leader’s son Martin Luther King III.
His remarks provided insight into the racial and ideological divides that could determine the outcome of a race in which Black and Latino voters who supported other candidates in the first round in February are the most crucial constituency.
Yet the runoff outcome might foreshadow the mood of the Democratic electorate as the 2024 presidential race approaches, shaping how the party’s candidates across the political spectrum strive to forge alliances and tackle crime and policing.
Nine candidates, including incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot, competed in the February 28 mayoral election in Chicago, with Vallas and Johnson advancing to the runoff as the top finishers.
Vallas’ initial speech focused almost entirely on combating crime by increasing the number of police officers, stressing community policing, and putting law enforcement on public transportation. The Chicago Fraternal Order of Police sponsors him and has a predominantly White and more moderate support base.
The Chicago Teachers Union has backed Johnson, a former teacher and Chicago Teachers Union organizer. He was an unknown character just a few months ago but has since emerged as a progressive celebrity.
During the runoff, the two candidates have courted Black pastors and community leaders. Johnson, who is Black, is looking to expand what is perceived as an edge among Black voters, while Vallas, who is White, is looking to broaden his base of support from White ethnic areas and the city’s predominantly White northern region.
According to the US Census Bureau, Latinos makeup about 30% of Chicago’s population and could be a significant swing group in the runoff. Democratic Rep. Jess “Chuy” Garca, who finished fourth in the February race, received the most votes in several mainly Latino neighborhoods and has now endorsed Johnson.
It’s unclear whether a decision will be made by Tuesday night. If the race is as close as many strategists and political observers expect, the number of ballots left to arrive and be tallied in Chicago could be greater than the winning margin on election night.
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Ideological divide
The race has, in many ways, illustrated the broader divides within the Democratic Party.
Progressives have backed Johnson, notably Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Other moderate players, such as Illinois Sen. Richard Durbin and several well-known Chicago Democrats, have backed Vallas.
Sanders, American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten, and Martin Luther King III all lit into Vallas during a rally for Johnson on Thursday night at the University of Illinois Chicago arena.
Sanders described the candidate – backed by business figures and some Republicans and performed best in February in the city’s predominantly White areas – as aligned with “the speculators and billionaires.”
“And I know which side Brandon is on,” Sanders said.
Weingarten cited the Illinois Federation for Children PAC, which received cash from the campaign arm of a conservative nonprofit formed by former Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos. According to Illinois campaign finance records, the PAC spent over $59,000 on digital commercials supporting Vallas in March. Vallas has turned down the group’s assistance.
“I don’t care what he says – for Betsy DeVos and her PAC to come in and support Paul Vallas tells you everything you need to know about him,” Weingarten said.
Johnson, meanwhile, has focused in recent weeks on branding Vallas as a Republican in the technically nonpartisan race. The former schools chief in Chicago, Philadelphia, and New Orleans says he is a Democrat – he was the party’s 2014 nominee for Illinois lieutenant governor – but he has made critical remarks about several top Democrats as recently as 2021.
“When you take money from Trump supporters and pretend to be part of the progressive movement – dude, sit down,” Johnson remarked at the protest on Thursday.
Vallas, running for mayor for the second time, entered the runoff with a strong lead, having received 33% of the vote in the February election, well ahead of Johnson’s second-place performance of 22%.
Nonetheless, his support base, which was more conservative and White than the other candidates, carried hazards. Chicago is a diversified, overwhelmingly blue metropolis, with 83% of its voters supporting the Democratic presidential ticket in the 2020 election.
Vallas has attempted to demonstrate on the campaign trail and in television advertising that he is a romantic match for the Democratic city.
His closing television advertisement begins with a narrator setting the theme: “Democrats for Democrat Paul Vallas.”
The 30-second spot features Durbin, former Rep. Bobby Rush – the only politician to have defeated former President Barack Obama in a 2000 House Democratic primary – and former longtime Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White, as well as some of Vallas’ former rivals in the mayoral election who have since endorsed him.
“Paul will invest in the South and West sides,” Rush, who is Black, says in the ad. Those regions are predominantly Black and have seen the highest violent crime rates.
Union Clout
The election will also put the police and teachers’ unions’ organizing abilities to the test. Both have feuded with departing Mayor Lightfoot, who finished third and missed the runoff, partly due to her strained relationships with those strong groups.
But Vallas, while leaning into his pro-police message, has been careful to keep at bay the Fraternal Order of Police – which is unpopular in some parts of Chicago, in part due to the incendiary views of its president, John Catanzara, who wrote on his 2021 retirement paperwork: “Finally!!! Let’s go, Brandon.” The phrase is used by some conservatives as a coded insult to President Joe Biden.
Ja’Mal Green, an activist and unsuccessful mayoral candidate who has since endorsed Vallas, posted a video on Twitter last month. Vallas said he has turned down Fraternal Order of Police donations and is independent of the group.
“I’m not beholden to anybody,” Vallas said in the video.
On the other hand, Vallas has chastised Johnson – who once supported calls to defund the police but now claims that, while he keeps supporting other crime-fighting programs, he would not want to cut the police budget – for a policy proposal to hire hundreds more detectives.
Vallas claims that Johnson’s plan would result in empty police positions and would not solve the crime on public transportation.
Vallas has stated that he will fill police openings and try to halt the tide of retirements, which he claims result from police not feeling supported.
“What I’ve said is let’s fill the gaps – and one way you fill the openings is you stem the departure of officers,” Vallas said last month on “CNN This Morning.” “We’ve been losing 1,000 people yearly due to weak leadership, poor strategy, and general personnel mismanagement.” And we can reduce the exodus dramatically.”
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